The numbers
Win probability for the full game and the first five, with the book's cut removed — so you're reading a probability, not a price.
Every morning we publish the numbers behind the day's games — win probability with the vig stripped out, every book's price side by side, the conditions that actually move a line. Then we grade it all against the result. You decide what to do with it.
Posted 6 AM PT, every day, on the record. Nothing behind it changes after the games start.
Win probability for the full game and the first five, with the book's cut removed — so you're reading a probability, not a price.
The same bet across every sportsbook, best at top, and what the gap between them is actually worth on a real stake.
Confirmed lineups, probable starters ranked against the league, park and weather — the things that move a number before it settles.
After the final, every card gets checked against what actually happened — wins and losses both. We publish a complete day so you can count for yourself rather than take a headline record on trust.
Open studies and plain-English explainers on line movement — what a price change is worth, when it means something, and when it doesn't.
169 MLB games, every row published. The favorites went 112–57 — and that number means far less than it looks like it does. Here's the honest reading.
Line MovementTwenty cents sounds like nothing. It's about three points of win probability — and whether it matters depends entirely on how many books moved with it.
Line MovementBaseball lines move more, and more often, than any other major sport's. Four reasons — and how the timing of a move tells you which one you're looking at.
The same daily card across baseball, football, basketball and soccer. Free covers one featured game a day; Premium opens the whole board.
Five days of full Premium, every game on the board. No card required, nothing on file.
No card. No touts. No locks.
You are in. Taking you to your Discord invite…